)On October 22, 1844, Sugar Hill, New Hampshire. Local Millerites braved chilly weather to await the second coming of Christ. Two days later an article appeared in Hill's New Hampshire Patriot entitled "End of the World" berating the failed hopefuls. This wasn't William Miller's first miscalculation.
This was also not the first failed end of time prophecy to be mocked. The first announcement of doom on record is an Assyrian clay tablet dated to 2,800 B.C.E. which cites arbitrary evidence of the world coming to speedy end. Romans in 634 B.C.E. thought their city would be destroyed that year due to a calculation involving their icons. The Montanists expected that the Christ's second coming would occur during the second century of our era. Pope Innocent III expected the end would take place in 1284 C.E., or exactly 666 years after the rise of Islam. Martin Luther placed the end as no later than 1600 C.E. And these are but a few of the many failed calculations or surmisings.
End time prophecies are not always calculations, and not a single culture can make exclusive claims on this subject. The Muslim Holy writings are interpreted as having end time prophecies in which Islam becomes the dominant religion of the world, then in a war from Gog of Magog during which Jesus breaks the cross, and he really dies this time, then all are destroyed, followed by a resurrection/recreation of believers. Many adherents of fundamentalist christendom await the anti-christ and Armageddon's destruction of the earth following tribulations and variant disasters, which includes a rapture to heaven. And Jewish Talmud is held by some to show end-time indicators as including such activities as anti-semitism being exercised by Jews even against one another, inflation is rampant, wisdom/truth/education will be rare, and the repopulation of Israel would take place, to be followed by a war in which Gog of Magog will bring the defeat of the gentiles and establish the Kingdom of Israel over all the earth. Hindus await the fourth apocalypse in which all of humanity is destroyed completely, and will be marked by calamities, sin, false religions, misery, disease, abortions, and falsehoods. Buddhists tend not to worry about it, since the current Kalachakra cycle still has 5,759,997,500 years before everything resets and starts over again. Also psychics, suicidal doomsday cults, Nostradamus interpreters, promised visits by extraterrestrials all add their own stack of fearful/hopeful prophecies and predictions to the mix. For relief on the positive side some look to found less alternative philosophies and melded doctrines, often thrown under the umbrella term of "new age".
People react to these unlimited sources of climactic themes with a variety of reactions, some dismiss the very notion, sensing that enough proof exists within the historical collections that considering such prophetic ventures is a waste of time and emotion. Others mock it, and yet more celebrate the subject with humor. And at least a few point to the fact that in some ways the overtly failed predictions could be construed to have predicted some sort of change, not ending human life and achievements as they predicted, but at least some sort of turning points. A soft reset as some describe it, much as the impact the industrial revolution had on altering society from a rural base to city. But this latter notion does not model well, using the Millerites as an example the industrial revolution was already in full swing, and it would require some stretch of facts to correlate this movement with any other event. Even the U.S. civil war was not to occur until some 17 years later, and it certainly did not begin in New Hampshire.
Despite the failures of past end time prophecies, many today still take other
end
time paradigms serious, and not just the religious. At least one world wide news
media outlet
has been known to keep a video on standby, with instructions to play in the
event of the imminent end of the world. Fears of cosmic disasters, terrorist
rampages, and even nuclear responses to political tensions are accepted as a
part of daily life, even affecting the business plans of corporations,
both large and small. And remember the overstated year 2000 fears,
when people of all social and economic stature purchased generators, horded
food, and prepared themselves for the worst, figuring that computers and
equipment relying on a two digit date would bring the world economy to a
screeching halt. (Maybe the real disaster was that it didn't happen.)
The end result is a morass of confusion, opposition, and even blended claims of
denial/alternative/calculated/psuedo-logical/political/agenda-filled insights
into the end of the world. Some extremists either do not trust their God or
conclude that he does not have
enough power to get the job done right, and attempt to render some
assistance and try to hurry things up.
So, how does one make sense of what to expect?
First, one would have to determine which hopeful promise can be trusted for accuracy. There are many promises made, even in modern times, that eventually fail. The destruction that was to occur during the alignment of the planets in May of 2000 failed to elicit a response from the natural elements. Hence the sources who promoted such fear mongering can no longer be trusted. Historical references are thus important to knowing where to look. The Koran (Muslim), the Tipitaka (Buddhist), the Talmud (Jewish), and many other sacred/mystical writings do not find their place in truth when some of their claims are weighed against fact1. In this there is but one book collection that stands alone, the Judeo-Christian Holy Bible. Ironically enough, even of those who claim to adhere to this, most do not weigh up to the same comparison, but fail miserably2. If there really is any valid guidance higher than man, it should be ascertainable and clear.
Second, we need to realize that humans were not designed to exist in the squalid conditions we do now. While the Assyrian text previously mentioned is the oldest recorded instance of predicted doom, there is a much older recorded instance of bright hope. This hope is tied in with the original purpose for humans, which was to live what is considered today to be a life of dreams: to have a home in a beautiful garden which was filled with healthy fast food and can never be taken away from you, not even for taxes nor eminent domain.(Genesis 2:15; Isaiah 65:22) So it should be expected that our natural inclination will be to seek a way out of our condition, we all want that perfect life, hence the many failed expectations and false hopes of history. However, false hopes provide no real benefit, only real a real hope that will provide final results can do so. And this is exactly what the Judeo-Christian writings hold out as a promise (1John 2:25) implemented by a real government in heaven (Daniel 2:44), and end not focusing on the destruction but on the removal of all of mankind's problems. The bad effects merely provide evidence of this end, proving for a fact that mankind cannot take care of the earth without the assistance of the one true supreme being, Jehovah God. Well then... How does one find what the truth is out of all the competing end-time pointers?
It is simple really, ignore the hype, the spin, the clever stories, and let the facts speak for themselves. (2Corinthians 10:5) Do not fall prey to the deviating reasonings of the human intellect, which can, and does, prove to be quite inventive and often excersizes 'artistic license'! Or as the Bible puts it, determine the fruits, or results of what is occuring2, not how they can thread it into a well weaved agenda. (Matthew 7:16)
In order to demonstrate this, we will now look at a few facts regarding end times from the greatest future analyst to have ever lived on the planet, set aside religious doctrine other than what is directly relevant to chiliasm, and determine what measureable standard can be determined for weighing against the expressed expectation.
In Matthew 24:7 Jesus foretold that one of the Chiliastic indicators would be "...earthquakes in one place after another." What do the facts tell us? That yes, they are on the increase, note this first chart:
Trend lines were included in order to represent the average growth of each data collection. While earthquakes measured at 7.0 and above increased slightly, the trends of 4.0 and the totals are readily perceived as on an increased slope.
The problem with trend lines becomes obvious on the previous graph. If a prediction were to be made from this line, then by the year 2000 C.E. no one would have died in an earthquakes. Yet in two recent years, 2001 and 2003 over 20,000 people suffered death as a direct result of earthquakes. So the following chart plots the trend starting from 1977 C.E. in order to get an idea of what the trend would be without the 1970's anomalous data.
Not to be overlooked is the implied prophetic expectation that indeed there would be a time when technology would be sufficiently advanced that world wide issues like these could be both monitored uniformly and analyzed.
Some argue that it is human effort that is causing increases, therefore it is not a prophetic claim, but merely the result of human damage, such as from drilling oil and altering the depths of the tectonic plates. While not ruling out that there could be some earthquake effects due to human terrestrial probing, it is a bit arrogant to make a claim that humans are causing all of the earthquakes. In most cases earthquakes originate at depths far greater than human activities. One method that is impermeable to human effects which can be employed to test this, is to measure another affect that can and does cause some of the earthquakes, volcanoes. Has volcanic activity increased? Have a look:
It should be noted that if one reads the FAQ's on the USGS and the Smithsonian Institute's web site, they're interpretation of the data is that earthquakes are not on the increase, neither are volcanic events. However the data speaks for itself. Also, the graphs they present do not seem to match their own data, as indicated when I rescaled my earthquake graph and overlaid onto the SI volcanic activity graph:
It is discernable where some data points had been altered, which allowed the trend chart to go flat. The fact that both government funded sources would be misrepresenting the data would make it appear unlikely that these errors are accidental.
Why would there be an interest in suppressing the facts. On the surface it is puzzling, and typically fact hiding is performed when there is some vested interest. With all of the terrorism, economic turmoil, political posturing that occurs in society today, have you ever noticed how the worst of events are given a positive spin? "The twin towers were attacked, that's a bad thing, but look how it drew people together!" Why this spin? To keep the populace from collapsing into panic. "Don't worry, everything is okay. Just go about your business as usual." while at the same time the FBI was setting up a hotline for any ideas on how to handle terrorism. ("...not knowing the way out..." Luke 21:25)
If more people truly analyzed the state of affairs the people of this planet were in, the expectation is that they would stay home out of fear. The economy would grind to a halt, whole governments, which rely heavily upon the broad power of the populace, would become powerless. So of course the vested interest is in suppressing the fearful facts, and promote the positive spins.
But, if people were to rely on Jehovah God, and his appointed King over the earth, Jesus Christ, then they would sense no reason to fear, because they would have an educated understanding that all things are under control. (Matthew 28:18)
There are also some interesting issues arising today which also prove the puniness of mankind, even as a collective whole, and the need to rely on God. These were not directly prophesied3 but would fall under the general category of 'fearful sights' as recorded at Luke 21:11. While not all, some of these are the results of human activities, such as pollution, increasing demands of technology driven economies, and globalization (not everyone looks forward to this, such as local businesses who fear their product will be rendered obsolete by the market 'pasteurization' processes of the larger globalized industries). Others are natural, such as glacial melting, amphibian depopulation, coral reef sterilization. Another 'fearful sign' could be the weather. While not all tropical events are 'fearful', some are, as noted in 1944 by U.S. Navy Admiral William Halsey who lost three destroyers and 800 crewmen in a typhoon after which he said, "No one who has not been through a typhoon can conceive of its fury." Measuring the weather is a good test example, because some areas are receiving record storms, yet some dismiss this as nothing to worry about, realizing that 'there have always been typhoons and hurricanes'. (2Peter 3:4) How would one measure this, wouldn't it be too arbitrary to measure? Note the following chart, where I simply took the total counts of tropical events, then plotted and trended. The counts trend upward. I also noted the most northern and southern latitudes for each year and discovered an interesting trend, that the tropical events are being limited toward a tighter region surrounding the equator. The data indicates that there are more TE's and they are being contained within a smaller region.
The reason the northern hemisphere is more affected than the southern hemisphere may be explained by the oblateness of the earth, the southern pole tending more toward flatness than the north4. Could this increasing oblateness have a part to play in the latitudinal compression of tropical events? Or is it humans causing global warming, as some would claim? The following chart indicates the bandwidth shrinkage in a view that better represents the wrap around the equator:
Add that to all the glaciers around the globe are melting, icebergs are melting, the desert bands north and south of the equator are expanding.
And what do the experts say? They're divided basically between two camps: global warming vs. normal trend, with a few scattering in the middle saying it's too early to tell, so quit worrying.
And of those who do say the earth is warming, they arrogantly say that it's man's doing. However, there is a problem with this presumed model. Granted, humans are dumping gasses into the atmosphere that would tend to trap heat and reduce the amount of solar radiation that reaches the surface (and the particles also make the air 'water proof', which prevents the moisture from falling as gentle rain until such a time that when the droplets finally find a water-soluble particle then the moisture laden atmosphere can collect all at once and drench a small segment of the earth). So pollution is bad, no doubt.
But it is not the main culprit of global warming. For decades environmental scientists figured the earth was capturing 20% of the energy of the sun as heat. But using actual satellite measurements they now find that the sun provides 50 times the amount of energy caused by humans related to global warming5. This is significant, as can be demonstrated by this illustration: Heat a 1 gallon bucket of water to boiling. Now take a 2.4 oz. eyedropper of boiling hot water from another source, and squirt in the bucket. Would it not be a fallacy for the one squirting the eye dropper to claim they caused that bucket of water to boil? It would even be arrogant to think so, but that is roughly the same ratio of humans impact on the global temperature.
Photo credit: NASA Earth's Radiant Energy System
(CERES)
One possible theory this author has contemplated is that the earth is reverting to a weather pattern that would be more suitable toward using all of the land, from current desert (whether it be Sahara or Antarctica) to more stable moisture. (Isaiah 35:1) The earth has been essentially unplugged from Jehovah's protection since Adam's sin. So the planet has been slowly heading toward extremes & sterilization, in a condition that has been without protection from the creator. Weather controls have been left without (angelic?) maintenance. The problem with deserts like the Sahara is not in getting any moisture there. There is more moisture per cubic inch in the atmosphere over the sahara than in soggy England. Instead, cooling the air enough to squeeze out the moisture is the difficulty. Humans who claim they do not need to rely upon God can not do it. Currently the moisture is condensed out only after cooling trips across the seas or cooler regions, sometimes as a hurricane.
If the poles weren't so cool, I suspect that the heated tropical moist air that now dumps on both sides of the equator creating deserts would dump closer to the poles, which would move cooler and moist environments out to where deserts are now, and warm the poles to a level more capable of normal human habitation. This fits the ancient pattern of Mesopotamia being fertile, not the desert we saw in the news during the Iraqi invasion. It fits the pattern of archaeological discoveries in the deserts of Peru, where tropical fruits were harvested by peoples of the long past. Evidence of gigantic crocodiles have been found in the dry river beds of the Sahara. Even Antarctica may be habitable some day! There is evidence that life thrived there before.
Whether or not this author's theory is even accurate, or will require modification in the future, for certain Jehovah by his decreed King is in more control of this world's weather than the world would care to recognize. (Mark 4:39) Those who are seeking the limited assets and power of this failing old world would rather it be their 'fault' (global warming) than to be required to answer a higher authority.
The gospel accounts are not the only source of end time prophecies. Note that 2Timothy 3:1 opens up a long list of expectations with the words "...in the last days...". James 5:3 indicates that material valuables will become valueless, and continue effort to defray such value will be self damaging. The purchasing power of nearly every currency has been declining for quite some time! Even the glitter value of gold has changed, from the 1800's it took gold 150 years to double in value, then from 1950 to 2000, in 1/3 of the time its value multiplied by 34 times! If you own the gold, that would be great, but if not, you are worse off from being able to afford it as purchasing power6. Another prophecy from a non-gospel source is Revelation 6:8, where it mentions that deaths by wild beasts of the earth would be increased. While primarily this scripture applies to the results of humans who behave like beasts, it would not be the first prophecy to be fulfilled by both a physical and event based occurrences. (ie: the seven times of Daniel 4:25 which was fulfilled physically by King Nebuchanezar, and eventfully by the beginning of the end of human rule in 1914 C.E.). Since attacks by animals are typically not tracked, this would be a difficult one to determine. However, one type of animal attack is sensational enough that it is tracked, that of the shark. Likely more people die of other human caused factors, maybe even by other animals than from sharks, but the concern has caused some data to be recorded. And here it is:
As I stated, Revelation 6:8 primarily applies to the beast like behavior of people. So how do they stack up? I would have preferred to measure war casualties, however there have been too many wars preventing proper census taking, as well as the political 'disorders' (Luke 21:9) render actual accounts of the loss of human life difficult. You can't just ask, "Excuse me colonel, would you please ask your soldiers to stop shooting so we can get an accurate count of the dead?" Results can also be prejudiced by the powers that be, or by popular interest. For instance news media outlets around the planet have reported on the number of U.S. and British casualties during and after the Iraq war in 2004+, however reports on deaths among Iraqi's, whether soldier or civilian, has been largely regional in scope. Yet another side effect of such disorder are refugees. So tracking them is made easier since such ones require international aid until such a time as they can escape their situation and become productive members of society:
You'll note that the 1990's saw quite an increase. Due to the United Nations making a purposeful effort this trend began to drop off. However with new reports of other areas around the world there could be renewed growth on the data, such as the current crisis in the Darfur region of Sudan where there are an estimated 1.5 million fleeing death by Janjaweed enthnic cleansing squads.
These negative events are all related to man kinds inability to properly self manage. They are also negative expectations as foretold in scripture canon. Yet, in Matthew 5:3-11 Jesus stated no less than nine times that we would be happy. So how can these negatives be resolved with happiness? This is answered in Matthew 13:16,17 (also Luke 10:23,24) where Jesus also indicated that properly perceiving what is really in front of our eyes is what can lead to our happiness. Many who come to an understanding of what is really happening on the earth take up the cause of freedom and explain the hope to others. (James 1:25) This was stated prophetically by Jesus in Matthew 24:14, "...and this positive message will be completely published among the inhabited world..." Note the results:
While angelic direction is involved (Revelation 14:6), the angels could never fully relate to the human condition. (Genesis 4:1; Job 31:27; Revelation 6:10) This is why God happily entrusted humans with representing him in a proclamation of liberty like none other in all of human history. (1Timothy 1:11) One aspect of this ministry is interesting in that the growth rate of preaching hours exceeds that of the world population. The result of this is an interesting trend in increased hours spent preaching per human on the planet:
Most businesses, agencies, governments, non-profit charities, etc... in order to accomplish greater work plan for increased budgets that exponentially grow in relation to the results. Greater inefficiencies result, more money is needed to make gains at a reducing rate. However in measuring the rate of efficiency for the donations offered by many world wide, the results are quite startling:
How many groups can measure their money per hour in pennies? Even most organizations that specialize in donations for the needy have fairly high administrative costs. Yet for the Kingdom Preaching work expendures of the donations were under 6¢ even in 1980 when there was an inflation rate of 13%, and if the brothers had kept pace with inflation it would have been still under 7¢. Inflation remained fairly flat in the following years, and the variance between actual expenditures verses adjusted expenditures closed slowly. Such efficient measures can only be accomplished by an intellect more organized and capable than humans. (Zechariah 4:6; 1Corinthians 14:33)
While these facts and figures are useful for interpreting the one true indicator for a hopeful and positive future for mankind, it's important to not become lost in the statistics and realize that for every person involved in the numbers, it is a life saved from destruction. (Romans 10:11-15)
While the data may speak for itself, only you can act to save yourself. Only you can seek the opportunity to study the Judeo Hebraic-Christian Grecian Bible to come to a knowledge sufficient to make a wise choice. (Proverbs 1:5-7) Before the prophetic 'time is up' (Zephaniah 2:2,3) seek Jehovah. And then you too will watch unafraid when he 'dehydrates the powerful ones of the land'. (Zephaniah 2:11)
"...the management of knowledge is evidenced by its results." --Matthew 11:19
Further recommended reading: http://www.watchtower.org/god_and_your_future.htm
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Footnotes:
1. While it is true that religious books are not fact books, such as science, it should be expected that if they were valid guide books from a source that can be useful for guiding one's life, then it should be possible to weigh such evidence against discovered fact in order to determine if what may seem arbitrary, dubious, or un-testable, can also be reliable. For instance, during the seventh through twelfth centuries, before Islamic fundamentalism took over and repressed artistic and scientific expression, muslim nations made huge advances in technology and studies of science. Yet the many claims of the religious book, the Quran, being attuned to science prove weak. Such as The Counsel 42:29 "And one of His signs is the creation of the heavens and the earth and what He has spread forth in both of them of living beings..." (The Holy Qur'an, Translated by M.H. Shakir). One need only look around and see living beings, this would not be evidence of any extra insight, and the claim that there are living beings in all of the universe would place this 'proof' within either the genre of 'science fiction', or serious research programs that still await any results (such as SETI). Most claims of the Koran and many other religious writings being scientific are of this nature, in essence predicting that "the sun will rise in tomorrow, and... and it will be in the east!" But even in some cases it proves more failing, such as "Do you not see how Allah has created the seven heavens, one above another..." (71:15) would indicate a dimensional space that would have prevented the astronauts & cosmonauts from reaching orbit. (And if anyone were to declare this passage as 'religious', then they would have to account for verse 16 which places the sun and moon in those layers) Other publications held as sacred, such as the Rik Veda, a part of a group of ancient recorded hymns, present the physical earth as holding up an unmovable sky on pillars. (Rik Veda 10-173-4) Another method to determine the power of insight of a sacred text would be to measure the power of prophecy. For instance, in the Hebrew Scriptures there is a prophecy recorded by Isaiah (13:19,20) which states that the city of Babylon, when once destroyed and empty, would never be inhabited again. The now deposed Saddam Hussein of Iraq had made that very attempt, and failed. The Judeo-Christian Holy Bible is filled with such prophecies that not only have proved true in the past, but continue to prove true today. Hence the soon to be fulfilled prophecies can also be trusted with the same certainty as Babylon remaining uninhabited.
2. Note that this is why many who claim to support and live by the unique book called the Holy Bible fail, because they allow human doctrinal derivatives to infiltrate and alter their perspective and conclusions, even of those with the best of intentions. In this case, the best one can do is pick back up, keep going, and don't make the same mistake again.
3. Some erroneously attempt to claim that hurricanes were prophesied in Revelation chapters 8 & 16. Others attempt to construe specific wars as having the backing of Christ. However such efforts are derived imaginatively and not by harmonious comparison against scripture as a whole. Jesus did mention the weather in line with an implication of the need to remain spiritually awake as recorded in Matthew 16:2,3, however even in this the weather was used as a lesson in capability and failures, not prophetically.
4. NASA's Jet Propulsion scientists Drs. Jean Dickey, Steven L. Marcus, and Ichiro Fukumori and Dr. Olivier de Viron of the Royal Observatory of Belgium published a paper in the Dec. 6, 2002 issue of Science magazine entitled "Recent Earth Oblateness Variations: Unraveling Climate and Postglacial Rebound Effects".
6. Data from http://eh.net/hmit/goldprice accessed Nov. 4, 2004
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